As Scottsdale transitioned into early fall, the city’s vacation rental market remained steady—showing rate resilience, consistent traveler interest, and solid forward momentum ahead of its high-demand season. While occupancy slightly eased from August’s summer levels, strong average daily rates (ADR) and longer booking windows reflected steady guest confidence and healthy revenue performance across property types.
Whether you already own a Scottsdale vacation rental or are considering entering the short-term rental market, this update highlights September performance, guest behavior trends, and where the market is heading as event season takes off.
September Snapshot: Stable and Rate-Driven
Scottsdale’s September performance reflected typical early-fall seasonality with encouraging rate strength.
- Occupancy: 40% (vs. 42% in August and 40% last year)
- ADR: $248 (up from $225 in August and $231 last year)
- RevPAR: $98 (above both prior-year and month-ago levels)
- Booking Window: 52 days (up from 42 in August)
The takeaway? Despite the expected post-summer normalization in occupancy, strong pricing power and early booking activity show that travelers continue to prioritize Scottsdale for high-quality, well-managed stays.
Performance Breakdown by Home Size
7-Bedroom Homes: Premium Demand Leads the Market
Luxury large homes continued to outperform in September, with ADR soaring to $1,036—a substantial increase from both August and last year. Occupancy averaged 38%, reflecting normal seasonal pacing, while RevPAR reached $396, signaling healthy revenue strength.
The 101-day booking window highlights early demand for holiday and winter dates, giving owners excellent forward visibility. Homes emphasizing resort-style amenities, flexible stays, and professional presentation remain best positioned for top-tier returns through Scottsdale’s high season.
6-Bedroom Homes: Steady Growth and Forward Momentum
Occupancy held at 29%, typical for early fall, while ADR climbed to $688, up sharply from August’s $604. This upward rate movement confirms that guests continue to prioritize quality and amenities even with lighter seasonal volume.
RevPAR improved to $201, supported by longer booking horizons (99 days on average). Owners focusing on strong visuals, dynamic pricing, and flexible availability are well set to capture early holiday and event-driven bookings.
5-Bedroom Homes: Rate Recovery and Early Planning Strength
While occupancy softened slightly to 32% compared to last year and August, ADR surged to $475, rebounding strongly from August’s $394 and nearly matching last year’s performance. The resulting RevPAR of $153 underscores the stability of this key mid-size segment.
The 96-day booking window points to growing forward demand for group and family travel. Listings with competitive weekend pricing, flexible terms, and high-quality staging continue to draw consistent bookings heading into Scottsdale’s busiest months.
4-Bedroom Homes: Steady Demand with Rate Momentum
September brought balanced performance for 4-bedroom homes, with occupancy at 36% and ADR climbing to $244—a strong rebound from August’s $216. This reflects continued traveler willingness to pay for well-designed, amenity-rich properties.
RevPAR held firm at $89, maintaining August levels, while the 62-day booking window suggests travelers are already planning for upcoming event weekends. Owners focusing on refreshed visuals and flexible minimum stays will be well positioned through fall.
3-Bedroom Homes: Stable Occupancy and Improving Rates
Occupancy remained steady at 34%, while ADR rose to $145, continuing the upward trend from August’s $134. The result: modest RevPAR growth to $49 and clear evidence that pricing flexibility is paying off.
The 50-day booking window shows guests planning mid-term stays, setting up a healthy base for October and November. Homes that balance affordability with style and proactive management continue to capture steady demand.
2-Bedroom Homes: Compact, Competitive, and Climbing
Smaller homes performed impressively, with occupancy rising to 37%, up from both August (34%) and last year (35%). ADR reached $93, driving RevPAR to $35, a solid month-over-month improvement.
With booking windows around 25 days, this segment benefits from last-minute travelers and dynamic pricing. Agile pricing and flexible calendars remain key to sustaining performance.
Macro Trends Shaping Traveler Behavior
Economic sentiment softened slightly in September, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dipping to 94.2 (down from 97.8 in August) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 55.1 (from 58.2). These declines suggest that travelers are becoming more cautious with discretionary spending, often favoring shorter, regional trips over extended vacations. Rising concerns about job security further support this shift, with guests seeking greater value and flexibility in their stays. Still, Scottsdale’s strong event lineup—including golf tournaments, festivals, and conferences—continues to stimulate travel demand, particularly on weekends. This balance of economic caution and event-driven enthusiasm has kept the city’s short-term rental market resilient as it transitions toward the busy winter season.
Looking Ahead: October and Beyond
As Scottsdale enters the fall season, the market is gearing up for one of its most active travel periods of the year. With cooler temperatures and event season ramping up, early signals point to accelerating demand and rising ADRs across larger homes and luxury listings.
Guests are favoring short, high-quality getaways and group travel experiences, typically booking 3–5 weeks in advance. Weekend occupancy remains strong, driven by golf tournaments, art festivals, and corporate retreats, while mid-week demand is rising thanks to conferences and business travel.
Strategic Focus for Owners:
- Highlight Scottsdale’s fall advantages—outdoor living, pools, and spacious backyards perform exceptionally well this season.
- Target event-driven stays by promoting proximity to fall favorites like the Scottsdale Polo Classic and the Dreamy Draw Music Festival.
- Emphasize design, amenities, and group functionality to reinforce luxury value.
- Prepare early for winter high season (November–March) by optimizing pricing now to capture premium bookings.
October marks the true beginning of Scottsdale’s high season—and one of the best opportunities of the year to maximize returns. With smart pricing, refreshed visuals, and event-focused marketing, owners can expect rising booking pace and stronger revenue performance through the remainder of fall.
Let’s Talk About Your Home’s Performance
If you have questions about these market trends—or want to learn how your home can perform even better—our team is here to help. At GoodNight Stay, we have dedicated experts for every aspect of short-term rental success, from marketing and pricing strategy to guest communication and experience optimization.
Contact us today to discover how we can help your property reach its full potential this season.
